XAUUSD Weekly Outlook: Week of 5 October 2026
Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of 5 October 2026: last week's 3.7% fall, the key levels at 4,143 and 4,259, and the FOMC minutes and US data to watch, in PKT.
Nex Wealth Management4 min read
This week's view: gold starts the week under pressure after a 3.7% fall, trading below its 20-day and 50-day averages. The 4,143 to 4,150 area, last week's low, is the level that decides whether the pullback extends, and Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the week's main event.
Gold closed last week at 4,162.3, down 158.9 (3.7%) from the previous Friday's 4,321.2. This outlook sets out where price stands, the levels that matter and the data releases most likely to move it, with every time in Pakistan Standard Time.
Prices in this outlook are COMEX gold futures (front month). Spot XAUUSD on most trading platforms usually sits somewhat below the futures price, so read the levels against your own chart.
The Picture Going Into the Week
Almost all of last week's fall came on Monday 28 September, when gold dropped from 4,321.2 to close at 4,168.4 after touching 4,143.1. For the rest of the week it held a range between roughly 4,145 and 4,259. Friday pushed up to 4,259.0 but sold off to close near the bottom of that range, at 4,162.3.
The short-term trend is down:
- Price is below the 20-day average (4,318.9) and the 50-day average (4,368.2).
- Rally highs have stepped down: 4,439.8 on 18 September, 4,351.6 on 25 September and 4,259.0 on 2 October.
- Monday 5 October traded between 4,150.4 and 4,198.9 and closed at 4,168.8, staying inside last week's range.
The wider picture is more balanced. Over the last 60 trading days gold has moved between 3,963.0 and 4,755.0, so the current level sits in the lower half of that range, not at an extreme.
Key Levels
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 4,315 to 4,320 | Last week's high (4,315.6) and the 20-day average (4,318.9) |
| Resistance 1 | 4,259 | Friday's high, the top of last week's range |
| Last close | 4,162.3 | Friday 2 October |
| Support 1 | 4,143 to 4,150 | Last week's low (4,143.1) and Monday's low (4,150.4) |
| Support 2 | 4,100 | The area gold broke out from in early August (4 August low: 4,098.2) |
| Support 3 | 3,963 | The 17 July low, the bottom of the July range |
Scenarios
If gold holds above 4,143
Holding last week's low would keep gold inside the 4,145 to 4,259 range it has traded since Monday's drop. A daily close above 4,259 would be the first sign that the pullback is losing momentum, opening a move back towards 4,315 to 4,320, where last week's high meets the 20-day average.
If gold breaks below 4,143
A daily close below last week's low would extend the move lower and put the 4,100 area in focus, where gold broke out in early August. Below that there is little recent support before the July low at 3,963.
Data to Watch This Week (PKT)
| Day | Time (PKT) | Release | Why it matters for gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday 5 Oct | 7:00 PM | US ISM Services PMI (forecast 55.1, previous 55.4) | A read on US growth, and on whether the Fed can keep rates high |
| Wednesday 7 Oct | 11:00 PM | FOMC Meeting Minutes | Detail on how Fed officials see the path of interest rates, the biggest driver of gold |
| Thursday 8 Oct | 1:30 PM | Fed Governor Waller speaks | Any signal on the timing of rate changes can move gold and the dollar |
| Thursday 8 Oct | 5:30 PM | US Unemployment Claims (forecast 200K, previous 197K) | A weekly check on the US labour market |
| Friday 9 Oct | 7:00 PM | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations (previous expectations 4.6%) | Inflation expectations feed directly into real yields |
The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda (Tuesday) and Bank of England Governor Bailey (Thursday) also speak this week. Their comments matter for gold mainly through their effect on the US dollar. Follow every release on our economic calendar.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the XAUUSD outlook for this week?
Gold starts the week of 5 October 2026 in a short-term downtrend after a 3.7% weekly fall, trading below its 20-day and 50-day averages. Last week's low at 4,143 is the key support and Friday's high at 4,259 the first resistance.
What could move gold most this week?
The FOMC minutes on Wednesday at 11:00 PM PKT, because they show how Federal Reserve officials are thinking about interest rates, the single biggest driver of gold. Friday's inflation expectations data is the other release to watch.
Why does gold fall when the Fed sounds hawkish?
Gold pays no interest, so when expectations for higher interest rates rise, the cost of holding gold rises too, and the US dollar tends to strengthen. Both usually weigh on the gold price. Our guide to what moves gold prices explains the drivers in full.
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